New York: The United Nations has issued a stark warning that the world is likely to exceed the crucial 1.5°C global warming threshold between 2025 and 2029, with a 70 percent probability that average temperatures during this period will surpass the target set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.
According to a new climate report released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Earth's climate is poised to remain at historically high temperatures following back-to-back record-breaking years in 2023 and 2024. The findings, based on projections by the UK's Met Office and other global forecasting centers, estimate annual global temperatures in the next five years will range from 1.2°C to 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels.
“We have just gone through the 10 hottest years ever recorded,” said Ko Barrett, WMO Deputy Secretary-General. “This latest report offers no indication of a reprieve in the near future, meaning growing harm to ecosystems, economies, and everyday life.”
The Paris Agreement aimed to cap global warming well below 2°C compared to pre-industrial times, with a more ambitious goal of limiting it to 1.5°C. But with carbon emissions still rising, many scientists now believe staying within the 1.5°C limit is no longer feasible.
The WMO notes there is also an 80 percent likelihood that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will break the record for the hottest year ever, surpassing 2024. Forecasts also indicate that Arctic warming will continue to outpace global temperature increases, and sea ice will continue to decline in regions like the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk seas.
Peter Thorne, a climate expert from Maynooth University in Ireland, said the likelihood of breaching the 1.5°C target will likely reach 100 percent within the next few years. “This aligns with expectations that the world will permanently cross the 1.5°C threshold by the late 2020s or early 2030s,” he said.
The WMO uses various methods to assess long-term warming, including blending recent observations with future projections. One approach estimates the average warming for the 2015–2034 period to be around 1.44°C. Meanwhile, the EU’s Copernicus climate service estimates current warming at 1.39°C and forecasts the 1.5°C mark may be breached as early as mid-2029.
While unlikely, there is now a one percent chance that global temperatures could spike above 2°C for at least one year in the next five, a milestone never before seen in predictive models. “That possibility is both unprecedented and alarming,” said Adam Scaife of the Met Office, noting that similar warnings about 1.5°C were once seen as distant possibilities—until they became reality in 2024.
Extreme weather continues to escalate globally. This month, sweltering heat gripped China and the UAE, reaching over 40°C and 52°C respectively, while deadly storms swept through Pakistan. Other regions—such as Australia, India, France, Ghana, Algeria, and Canada—have also faced devastating floods and wildfires in recent months.
“We’ve already crossed into dangerous territory,” warned Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London. “Clinging to fossil fuels in 2025 is sheer madness.”
The next five years are also expected to bring above-average rainfall to regions like South Asia, northern Europe, Alaska, and the Sahel, while areas such as the Amazon basin may experience drier conditions.
As the planet veers closer to irreversible climate tipping points, experts stress the urgency of shifting away from fossil fuels and ramping up global climate action.
