New Delhi, 25th April : The relationship between India and Pakistan has been one of the most complex and fragile bilateral ties in modern geopolitics. Rooted in the painful legacy of partition, shaped by multiple wars, and constantly tested by border skirmishes and terrorist attacks, this relationship has found some measure of stability in treaties and agreements that have withstood decades of animosity. Two such pillars of Indo-Pak diplomacy are the Indus Waters Treaty (often referred to as the Sindhu Water Agreement) and the Simla Agreement. As tensions rise again following a recent terrorist attack in Kashmir, revisiting these agreements offers insights into the past, a reflection on the present, and a contemplation of the uncertain future.
The Indus Waters Treaty: An Oasis of Cooperation
Signed in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) was a landmark agreement between India and Pakistan concerning the sharing of the waters of the Indus River and its tributaries. Despite three wars and countless skirmishes, the IWT has largely endured, making it one of the most successful water-sharing accords in the world.
Under the treaty, the waters of the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — were allocated to India, while Pakistan received the waters of the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India was permitted limited agricultural use and development on the western rivers, but it had to ensure unrestricted flow to Pakistan.
The Simla Agreement: Post-War Diplomacy
In the aftermath of the 1971 India-Pakistan war, which led to the creation of Bangladesh, the Simla Agreement was signed in July 1972 by Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi and Pakistani President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. The accord laid the groundwork for peaceful bilateral relations and emphasized resolving differences through dialogue.
Key tenets of the Simla Agreement included respect for the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir, non-alteration of its status unilaterally, and a commitment to peaceful dispute resolution. It was a document that underlined bilateralism — a principle India has often stressed in contrast to Pakistan’s frequent appeals for international mediation.
Past: A History of Conflict and Compromise
The legacies of both the IWT and the Simla Agreement are steeped in a history of tumult and reconciliation. After partition in 1947, water sharing quickly became a flashpoint, as the newly created Pakistan feared India could choke its agrarian economy. The World Bank-mediated Indus Waters Treaty, thus, was not just about water—it was about survival and sovereignty.
Similarly, the Simla Agreement came after the most devastating war between the two nations. With 90,000 Pakistani soldiers in Indian custody, India held significant leverage. Yet, it chose diplomacy over domination, seeking regional stability through mutual understanding.
Present: Treaties in a Time of Turmoil
Despite their longevity, both agreements have come under stress, especially in recent years. The IWT, while generally respected, has been challenged by India’s increasing hydro-electric projects on the western rivers. Pakistan often alleges that such projects violate the treaty’s spirit, if not its letter.
The Simla Agreement has faced even greater strain. Repeated ceasefire violations along the LoC, insurgency in Kashmir, and incidents like the Kargil War in 1999 and the Pulwama attack in 2019 have tested its relevance. Most recently, the brutal terrorist attack in Kashmir — attributed by Indian intelligence sources to Pakistan-based groups — has once again raised questions about the efficacy of these decades-old agreements.
Impact of the Recent Terrorist Attack
The recent terrorist strike in Kashmir, which claimed the lives of several civilians and security personnel, has reignited debate in Indian strategic circles about the value of continuing with the IWT and the Simla Agreement. The attack has fueled public outrage, with many demanding stringent retaliatory measures — including the abrogation of water-sharing arrangements.
There are voices within India advocating for a review or even unilateral abrogation of the IWT. While this would be a severe diplomatic move, especially in terms of international law and obligations, the growing domestic pressure cannot be ignored. The idea that India continues to supply water to a nation allegedly sponsoring terrorism is hard to digest for many citizens.
In response, Pakistan has warned that any disruption of the treaty could be construed as an act of aggression. The international community, particularly stakeholders like the World Bank and China (given its CPEC investments), would likely intervene to prevent escalation. However, the geopolitical climate is unpredictable.
The Simla Agreement, meanwhile, is increasingly seen as a diplomatic relic. India’s revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019, and its assertion that Pakistan has no say in its internal matters, have shifted the diplomatic paradigm. For Pakistan, the LoC has ceased to be a line of cooperation and become one of confrontation.
Future: Uncertain Waters and Fragile Peace
Looking ahead, the future of the Indus Waters Treaty and the Simla Agreement is anything but certain. Climate change, population pressures, and rising nationalism in both countries add layers of complexity.
India has already begun maximizing its usage of the eastern rivers, and there is increasing talk of expediting dam and irrigation projects on the western rivers — within the treaty’s framework. However, the scope for conflict grows if these developments are perceived by Pakistan as hostile.
Diplomatically, the Simla Agreement might need a reboot. Many scholars argue for a new framework that reflects current realities — perhaps a broader South Asian peace initiative or a trilateral dialogue involving China, given its strategic interest in the region.
On the ground, people on both sides of the border continue to suffer. Water scarcity in Pakistan, especially in Sindh and Balochistan, is reaching critical levels. In India, especially in the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, people face the dual burden of conflict and underdevelopment.
Conclusion: Between Rhetoric and Reality
The Sindhu Water Agreement and the Simla Treaty represent more than just diplomatic documents — they are symbols of what is possible when diplomacy prevails over destruction. They have held, despite wars and bloodshed, because both nations understood the cost of collapse.
But in the shadow of fresh violence, these treaties now stand at a crossroads. India and Pakistan must decide whether to let them become historical footnotes or reinvigorate them for a new era of peace. The waters of the Indus still flow, as do the hopes of millions — for peace, for prosperity, and for a future where diplomacy wins over terror.
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